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November 2026

November 5, 2026 / By / Freight Industry • Trucking /

In June we told you that if your freight costs felt higher than they should, you weren’t imagining it. Four months later, the numbers have only moved further in that direction. Trucking prices are up nearly 20% from a year ago, diesel recently set an all-time record, and freight spending is climbing faster than freight volume.

But there is good news underneath the headlines. After the longest freight downturn on record, shipment volumes are finally growing again, and Washington is beginning to take notice on the fraud and safety issues our industry has been raising for years. Here’s what shippers and carriers need to know heading into the end of 2026.

Transportation Costs Keep Climbing

Trucking prices have now risen nearly 20% in a single year. On October 15, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for truck transportation of freight rose 19.3% from September 2025 to September 2026, up from the 17.3% increase we reported in June.

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Producer Price Index, September 2026 (BLS data), released Oct. 15, 2026

The broader economy is feeling it too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says overall producer prices rose 6.3% over the year, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022, and transportation and warehousing services jumped 16.0%. Notice that the cost of arranging freight, which includes brokerage services, rose far less than the cost of moving it. That gap reflects how much of today’s increase is coming from fuel, equipment and operating costs on the carrier side.

Volumes Are Turning a Corner, Slowly

For the first time in years, freight volume is growing again. The Cass Freight Index, which tracks invoices from hundreds of large shippers, showed:

  • Shipments up 1.9% year-over-year in September, the second straight monthly gain after a 3.5-year decline, the longest on record for the index.
  • Freight spending up 20.4% year-over-year, as higher volumes, rates and fuel surcharges all stacked on top of each other. Cass now expects total freight expenditures to rise about 12% for the full year after three straight years of declines.
  • Truckload linehaul rates up 10.1% year-over-year, a measure that strips out fuel and accessorials.

Not every signal agrees, which is why we call this a slow turn rather than a boom. TIA’s new weekly Freight on the RADAR report, written by TIA economist Amanda Radwanski, PhD, describes a mixed outlook. The government’s Freight Transportation Services Index was still down 3.0% year-over-year in August, and manufacturing growth is uneven: computers, electronics and machinery are up, while food and beverage, chemicals and auto parts production declined.

One encouraging sign from that report: business sales have grown faster than inventories for more than a year. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell from 1.40 to 1.33, meaning shelves are leaner. Leaner inventories usually mean replenishment freight is coming, which matters for capacity planning in early 2027.

Diesel Hovers Near Record Highs

Fuel remains the biggest single pressure on transportation costs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the national diesel average at $6.276 per gallon for the week of October 19, $2.66 higher than a year ago and just below the all-time record set in late September. EIA’s October outlook expects retail diesel to average $5.19 for 2026 and $4.49 in 2027, so shippers should expect fuel surcharges to remain a large share of freight invoices through year-end.

Peak Season Came Early and Is Winding Down

This year’s import peak started early, as retailers pulled cargo forward ahead of tariff changes in late July, and it stretched through the summer. According to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker, August was likely the busiest month of 2026 at 2.3 million TEU, and most holiday merchandise has already arrived.

  • October: forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5% year-over-year
  • November:0 million TEU, down 1%
  • December:02 million TEU, up 0.6%
  • Full-year 2026:8 million TEU, up 1.4% from 2025

NRF is also forecasting holiday retail sales to grow 4.2% to just over $1 trillion. What that means for domestic freight: the import surge is behind us, but the goods still have to move from warehouses to store shelves and doorsteps over the next eight weeks. Expect steady demand for retail replenishment and final-mile freight through December, and build in extra lead time around Thanksgiving and Christmas when driver availability tightens.

Cargo Theft: Fewer Incidents, Far Bigger Losses

Cargo thieves are working smarter, not harder. Verisk CargoNet recorded 677 theft incidents in the second quarter of 2026, down 26% from a year earlier. But estimated losses more than doubled to $304.6 million, up from $135.7 million in Q2 2025. In the first half of the year, losses topped $359 million, and the average stolen load was worth about $341,500.

The reason is a shift from opportunistic theft to organized, targeted crime. CargoNet reports that business email compromise is now the main entry point for sophisticated schemes. Criminals hack one account, gain access to shipment details and contacts, then impersonate a trusted party to redirect high-value freight like electronics, enterprise servers and metals.

The holiday season adds risk. Loaded trailers sit longer over long weekends, and CargoNet has flagged hot spots including Dallas-Fort Worth, Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, New York and Los Angeles. A few practical steps for the weeks ahead:

  • Shippers: confirm any change to pickup details, carrier or consignee by calling a known number, never one provided in the email requesting the change.
  • Carriers: protect your email, load board and FMCSA accounts with multi-factor authentication, and be wary of unexpected requests to update account or payment information.

TIA Update: Pushing to the Finish Line

As we shared in our Policy Forum recap, Westgate joined more than 130 TIA members in Washington in September for roughly 160 meetings with congressional offices. With the midterm elections on November 3 and only a few weeks left in this session of Congress, TIA is keeping the pressure on three priorities.

  1. Stopping organized cargo theft. TIA President and CEO Chris Burroughs told Transport Topics that cargo theft “continues to be a plague on the industry.” The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA) passed the House in May and now awaits Senate action. TIA is also supporting the Household Goods Protection Act, Dalilah’s Law and the SAFER Transport Act. Cargo theft has strong support from both parties, so the question is timing, not whether.
  2. A clear federal standard for choosing safe carriers. Since the Supreme Court’s Montgomery v. Caribe Transport ruling in May, brokers and shippers can face state-law negligent selection claims with no clear national rule for what a “safe” carrier choice looks like. In June, TIA petitioned FMCSA to create a federal Motor Carrier Safety Selection Standard and publish a High-Risk Motor Carrier List, noting that more than 90% of authorized carriers have no FMCSA safety rating at all. In Congress, H.R. 5337 would set that standard in law. We agree with TIA: deciding which carriers are safe to operate is the federal government’s job, and a single, objective standard helps everyone. Good carriers get clear criteria they can meet, and shippers get confidence their freight is moving with compliant partners.
  3. Opposing “rate intrusion.” FMCSA has been developing a proposal that would let carriers and shippers inspect brokers’ transaction records. TIA’s position is that the government shouldn’t step into private contract negotiations between two parties, especially when carriers already have real-time market pricing at their fingertips. TIA supports the Broker Modernization Act, which would repeal the 1980s-era rule and also require unregistered dispatch services to play by the same rules as licensed brokers.

TIA has also launched a weekly economic report, Freight on the RADAR, giving the 3PL industry more timely market data. We’ll be sharing insights from it in future updates.

With fuel near record highs, theft growing more sophisticated and new federal rules taking shape, the theme for the end of 2026 is preparation. Reach out to our logistics professionals for strategies on how to navigate your shipping needs, and when you call, you’ll always reach a real person.

About Westgate

You can always count on Westgate Global Logistics to keep you up-to-date on industry news. Our passion for delivering exceptional logistics services continues to be at our core and is why we have thrived in this constantly changing industry. **CONTACT US** today to experience how we can improve your shipping efficiencies.

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